It was clear who the losers were in the dispute between Poland and Belarus. The thousands of migrants who became stranded on the border in freezing conditions had their dreams of a new future in Europe dashed, and some are now being repatriated to their home countries. But for Poland’s government, the crisis helped to divert attention from a series of uncomfortable issues.
The nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS), which won an outright majority in 2015, has seen its grip on parliamentary power weaken in the years since. It is also roiled in conflict with the European Commission over the rule of law and faces wide opposition, especially in urban areas, to its position on cultural issues.
Earlier this month, the death of a pregnant Polish woman reignited debate over the country’s near total ban on abortion, with protesters again taking to the streets.
Set against this backdrop, the drama that played out on the country’s eastern border with Belarus — while unsolicited by Poland and serious for all involved — can be seen as a helpful distraction for the ruling PiS.
This migration crisis is quite useful from the perspective of the domestic political agenda for the party because they are at the moment in trouble. And they have been in trouble for quite a time already, with the parliamentary majority becoming slimmer and slimmer,” Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Warsaw office, told CNN.
The right-wing party’s ruling coalition narrowly controlled the lower house, the Sejm, until the summer, when three MPs defected, costing PiS its formal majority and forcing it to rely on the support of independents. The party had already lost control of Poland’s upper house in 2019 elections, and President Andrzej Duda, backed by PiS, only narrowly won a second term last year.
Meanwhile, rising inflation is causing financial pain for many in Poland, and polling indicates support for the government has dropped in recent weeks, said Buras.
“I don’t want to play down the situation because it is risky and serious, quite a difficult political situation because it involves a security conflict and a humanitarian crisis… but there is of course also an attempt to capitalize politically on this crisis,” he said.
Judy Dempsey, editor of the Strategic Europe blog for the thinktank Carnegie Europe, agreed that the crisis had been “playing out very well” for the ruling party.
Support for the government had fallen, she said, amid protests over the death of the pregnant woman. But Dempsey added: “With this whole crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border, Law and Justice now is seen as a champion of protecting Polish sovereignty and, of course, protecting Europe.”
